WELCOME PILOTS
I need your help, pilots. Do you have a good story about losing GPS (signal/power) and having to find your way using pilotage, dead-reckoning, vectors or DF steer? Please respond to this week's blog email with your story and it might wind up as a case study for my new seminar (at this time it's a live presentation only) titled; “Cross Country Flight Planning When the Lights Go Out.” Your identity will be protected, just request not to be mentioned. Remember, all stories, flattering and not, might save a life one day.
~TC Freeman
“Keeping the fun in high performance aviation training.”
********************************************
NEW PRESENTATION
“PILOT AND AIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE"
********************************************************************
Your opportunity to continue the dialog is on Facebook:
**********************************************************************
PILOT SAFETY MINUTE VIDEO #44 ~ CROSS COUNTRY FLIGHT PLANNING REVIEW
****************************************************
Need a Speaker for your Next Event? We Can Help. See the Article;
Need a Speaker for your Next Event? We Can Help. See the Article;
***************************************************************************
FAA AIRLINE TRAFFIC FORECAST OFF BY 50M FOR 2018
By TC FREEMAN
In a previous articles I discussed various aspects of the FAA's aviation forecast. While there is a lot of wisdom in their expansive document it is important for us as aviation consumers to compare this information with other expert information. According to Michael Boyd, aviation forecast expert that regularly appears on network television, the FAA's 2018 forecast for passenger travel will be 50 Million less than what the agency predicts. Additionally, Boyd notices certain paradigm shifts in the way airline and general aviation aircraft are utilized. Surprisingly, revenue and obstacles remain central to the chess game in the aviation industry.
Perhaps the largest shift is related to the “global economy.” While sending physical products via cargo ships remains king, the business surrounding most commerce is taking on a international flavor. Boyd pointed out in a recent presentation that economically healthy aviation hubs have to possess “global relevance.” For example, Austin, Texas is a rapidly expanding tech center that has heavy manufacturing and logistical ties in Asia. From an airport perspective, it is critical to have a unified vision with the communities they serve.
On the flip side, global airports will also be hubs for travel within the United Sates. One of the high aircraft manufacturing sectors are aircraft that can haul 101-125 passengers, typically regional airline aircraft. Personally, I will be interested to see how aircraft demand will be countered by the pilot shortage in the regional airlines. With the recent airline mergers it is predicted that the regional airlines will also shrink. Combined with the controversies such as regional airline pilot pay, it will be interesting to see how these battleground issues play out. An additional factor to note are passengers that are open to driving longer distances (typically to larger cities) to get the best airfare deal.
Concerns about fuel cost remain relevant to entire aviation industry from the major airlines to the single engine Beechcraft Bonanza owner. With oil prices closing in on $100 per barrel and the concern for 100LL alternatives, the industry is looking for more efficiency combined with higher airline passenger counts. The outlook for higher horsepower legacy General Aviation (GA) aircraft isn't bright as the cost of operation contributes to the decrease in flying by 10 Million hours over the past ten years (source: FAA).
As the efficiency of Light Sport Aircraft (LSA) becomes more attractive, the average price of ownership (approximately $120K) has caused potential owners to consider alternatives such as smaller antique aircraft (for example the Aeronca, Piper J-3 and Taylorcraft). Boyd pointed out the cost issue with the recently suspended production of the Cessna Skycatcher (LSA), which retailed for $135,000. As an example, he noted that a 1955 Piper Tri-Pacer, adjusted for inflation, would cost $40,000 today, an additional obstacle to aircraft sales.
An encouraging aspect to corporate and smaller general aviation is the need for regionalized air transportation. Charter, corporate and smaller owner/operator aircraft can fill the gap in unavailable or underserved (including rural) airline markets. With respect to GA aircraft, I did have the opportunity to speak with Boyd about the single-engine, turbo-prop market and asked why Beechcraft (Cessna/Beech) didn't have a large single-engine turbine on the market, based on the popular King Air line of aircraft. According to the rumor mill a design exists (“on paper”). However, Boyd believes the certification process would cost the company approximately $1 Billion dollars, an investment they are not willing to make during a time when revenue is critical.
It is apparent that the airlines, airports and general aviation will have unique challenges and opportunities to face at least for the next five to 10 years. Forecasting more than ten years ahead is difficult, but some of the paradigm shifts planned for the short term could affect aviation for many years to come. Airlines are positioning to serve consistent markets. Airports are trying to woo airlines that are hinged to the business climates of their respective cities. Corporate and owner/operator flying has an indelible niche' while recreational aviation searches for secure footing in a changing climate.
About the author:
TC Freeman has been flying since he was a teenager and is now an aviation speaker and author. Being employed as an Aviation Safety Specialist for state government, he has a passion for spreading the thrill of flying just for the fun of it via the website, www.WingsOfun.com.
***********************************************************************
OPERATION: FLY NC
OPERATION: FLY NC
“We are excited to donate this segment of the WingsOfun BLOG to this great program that promotes; airport visitation, education and tourism.”
~TC FREEMAN
OPERATION: FLY NC NEWS
Stamp NOTAMS (See the previous stamp NOTAMS)
* May 17, 2014 (8 a.m. – 7 p.m.) Fayetteville (FAY) Fly-in, Airport Road, Fayetteville, NC. For more information go to: http://flyins.com/events/view-event.html?id=5816
*May 17, 2014 (9 a.m. – 4 p.m.) IXA Wings and Wheels Fly-in. Halifax/North Hampton County Regional Airport (Roanoke Rapids, NC).Seminars, helicopter rides, Light Sport Aircraft (LSA) rides, food, camping, entertainment and more. More information available on the fly-in facebook page,https://www.facebook.com/#!/groups/1419097265010777/, SocialFlight, http://www.socialflight.com/event-details.php or by phone at, 252-583-3492.
*June 7, 2014 (9 a.m. – 4 p.m.) NC Aviation Museum and Hall of Fame Fly-in, Asheboro Regional Airport (HBI). Community and pilot fly-in event featuring “Angels Playmate” P-51 Mustang, vendors, hot rods, youth activities, museum and more.
**************************************************************************
IMPORTANT AUDIO PRESENTATION AVAILABLE:
“OPERATIONS AT NON-TOWERED AIRPORTS”…for pilots flying just for the fun of it.
With the issue of sequestration, the shut-down of many Air Traffic Control Towers is a possibility. Regardless, it is important to know how to safely and efficiently operate at Non-Towered Airports. In this audio book TC Freeman discusses; straight in approaches, dealing with aircraft on extended downwind and traffic pattern entries.
(Run time: 34 minutes)
******************************************************************
NEWS FROM THE WEB
Brought to you by:
HOW TO SAVE MONEY ON FLIGHT TRAINING
eBook by WingsOfun Media
*INCLUDES SPECIAL CAREER PILOT SECTION!
*INCLUDES SPECIAL CAREER PILOT SECTION!
* “Quicksilver Sport S2SE Gains Approval” ~ Flying Magazine.
FAA promotes new weather initiative.
*”Glider pilot becomes youngest female to solo at U.K. gliding club”
*WingOfun Call to Action: “Senate Acts On Third-Class Medical Exemption” (AvWeb). A quote from the article from Senator Pat Roberts, R-Kansas, "The FAA has had two years to review this request for an exemption.....Let's get this thing moving."http://www.avweb.com/avwebflash/news/Senate-Acts-On-Third-Class-Medical-Exemption221581-1.html
Contact your elected officials in support of the “expansion of the driver’s license medical exemption to more (non-commercial) pilots. To find your senate representatives go to: http://www.usa.gov/Contact/Elected.shtml
http://youtu.be/9ruArctYYbM
Interesting video about the dedication of the team that rescued a DC-3 Turbine from Antartica.
Interesting video about the dedication of the team that rescued a DC-3 Turbine from Antartica.
*Articles
*Aviation Presentations (live)
*Videos
*eBooks
*Special Event Announcements
*Operation: Fly NC program
Questions? Contact: tom@wingsofun.com
***************************************************************
*Aviation Presentations (live)
*Videos
*eBooks
*Special Event Announcements
*Operation: Fly NC program
Questions? Contact: tom@wingsofun.com
***************************************************************
